ADX and DFM stocks oversold now

The market has already overshot dangerous support levels mentioned in recent blog posts, as evidenced by the performance of select stocks.

It is not advisable to buy anything in such oversold conditions until some confirmation is visible on the charts of a possible extended short term or intermediate trend change.

As stocks languish below short term moving averages on the daily charts, this would be a dangerous market to buy into.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on as of today’s close:

ARMX

holding above 1.49, mentioned recently as a strong FIBO line.

Is this a good omen for Dubai stocks?

ARTC

2.26 did trade first according to the scenario described here recently.

And mentioned here.

Stay away from this stock and avoid buying in a falling market until some sign comes up that the trend may be changing. Expect bounces, but they are to relieve downward legs, that’s all, and suck people in.

EMAAR

Bad scenario. 2.20-32 should decide the fate of the stock this year.

Easy as that.

UPP

Recently, and before the Credit Suisse analysts’ report came out on this company, Union Properties, this blog said that UPP is dead.

Now people are talking about 3 fils a share (that’s 0.03)

Another way of saying “almost dead” (see end of linked post).

ALDAR

Still below 4.56 mentioned earlier on this blog. The more time the stocks spends below there, the more bearish it gets.

UNB is below 3.00 and that signals weakness.

A look at strength of some UAE stocks

ALDAR

6.53 on 15OCT2009 the highest WEEKLY close,

the highest seen in at least the past 15 months.

The stock closed two weeks above 6.19

a major 2008-9 CRASH FIBO 38.2% WEEKLY CLOSING

Watch 4.56 (also a WC CRASH FIBO) on a weekly closing basis to determine general direction of the stock.

EMAAR

16OCT2009 the stock touched 5.01 intraday

but has not been able to close once above the 2008-9 WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% around 4.97

2008-9 range recap

15.50 06JAN2008 close

1.77 03FEB2009 close

DIC

closed a few times above 1.40, the first WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% but failed to break out above 1.52

ARTC

Failed to reach 4.24, WC CRASH FIBO 38.2%, now struggling again with 2.90-1

UNB

Struggled to stay above 4.06, the WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% for more than a month, must now try so stay above 3.00 site of the lower related FIBO

ETISALAT

Blocked by the 50% WC CRASH FIBO at 12.58 but did well to get there

ARMX
touched 1.94, the WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

must try to hold 1.49, the 38.2% lower level

AABAR

broke 2.60 WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% and stayed above it for a good quarter last year.

FGB

almost touched 19.88 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

in a similar situation as ARMX

NBAD

touched 14.40 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8 on a few weeks, in a similar situation as ARMX and FGB

ADCB

closed just one week above 2.52

a WC MAJOR FIBO of 2007-10 range

STRONG stocks: ARMX , FGB, NBAD

MEDIUM STRENGTH stocks: ETISALAT

WEAK stocks:  AABAR, ALDAR, ARTC, UNB,

VERY WEAK stocks: ADCB, DIC, EMAAR

Special Mention

UPP, almost dead

GULFNAV 2010

Gulf Navigation, GULFNAV, is a stock people think is very undervalued. That belief stems mainly from the fact that the stock’s price is far away from the IPO price of 1 dirham. As it languishes below ONE DIRHAM a share, GULFNAV has been fighting to close above 0.57 on a weekly basis.

A weekly close above 0.70 may negate the relentless downtrend since mid October.

This is a stock with bearish momentum that could be cancelled by any showing above 0.64

We may yet see 0.35 or 0.30 when the company stock price may look attractive enough for it to begin possibly buying back shares.

The company declined 11 per cent in the last 12 months in Dubai trading, compared with an 8.4 per cent drop for Frontline Limited, the world‘s largest operator of super tankers. Gulf Navigation, which held an initial share sale in 2006, may buy back as much as 10 per cent of its stock, Wistoft said.

UNB 2009-10

The 2009 price range of Union National Bank’s stock suggests 2.52 is critical to the uptrend this stock has been in since January last year. The stock’s price bounced strongly off that 2009 major FIBO level (weekly close) on December 10th.

Closing above 3.74 is constructive. Make no mistake, however, as momentum is bearish. It will probably get cancelled at multiple closes above 3.50, and especially the weekly FIBO of recent range at 3.60 where the stock was blocked in December.

ARTC & EMAAR week Jan10

For the week of Jan 10th, ARTC and EMAAR respectively have fallen 10.4% and 12.2%

The only good news today for both stocks was that they did not register fresh lows.

Above 2.85 ARTC  and 4.05 EMAAR next week the stocks may cancel the immediate downtrend but expect lower lows indicated in previous posts.

ARTC & EMAAR updates

Let’s see from a price perspective what’s been going on with ARTC and EMAAR recently.

ARTC has recorded lower lows and lower highs for the fourth consecutive day, also its third consecutive down day. Although an intraday low of 2.36 was hit, the stock managed to close at 2.43, mentioned two days ago. So now we expect 2.26 to trade before 2.81. and that’s not too far away from where we stand.

Mid-term and long-term buyers may want to wait before buying into Arabtec, and get some confirmation that the immediate downtrend is over.

EMAAR

Also closed today at a level mentioned here yesterday, 3.55. Will it end its fall? Maybe, if the stock price forms a daily swing low tomorrow, i.e. manages to trade above today’s high at 3.70

The stock is in an immediate downtrend and a close this week below 3.55 would suggest the lower levels may be reached, mentioned yesterday.

Unless both stocks close at limit up tomorrow, their short-term outlook is quite bearish after moving convincingly below short-term Moving Averages.

EMAAR shortterm bearish

December-January range suggests the fall from 4.26 may end around 3.55

3.17 – 3.27 is a stronger layer of support from which the price gapped up to euphoric levels in mid December.

3.69-70 offers major FIBO support for now.

Moving Averages picture suggests the stock must close above 3.80 this week to keep bullish and try to do the same at the end of the month. Otherwise expect the price to fall further.

A bad scenario may see the stock visit 2.97, a major FIBO of range from early 2009.

2.20-32 is CRITICAL to this stock and the overall market but that’s about 40% away from current levels.

ARTC Big Picture 2010

Lots of news recently about AABAR “taking over” Arabtec. As ever, real details are hard to come by and as people over-analyse the “deal” speculation on the future stock price is ultimately based on flawed assumptions and premises. The main and important assumption that the large stakeholders are operating based on some kind of brilliant long-term strategy is the one that is most false. After all this is the UAE stock market we are talking about.

Let’s look instead at a few numbers that can aid decisions related to intermediate and long-term holding of ARTC shares.

2.52 is critical this January on a monthly closing basis. What this means is should ARTC close below this level at the end of the month, then expect it to revisit 2.26

Above 2.88 this month the stock is strong. That’s where a short-term monthly MA lies at the moment. An immediate concern is closing above 2.68 (a weekly short-term MA)

I expect 2.43 to provide some support on a closing basis for this stock as a major FIBO of the December-January range thus far, but if we see it trade before 2.81 then I expect lower levels, the aforementioned 2.26 coming first.

End of ADX DFM EIBOR postings

This blog will no longer post EIBORs  and ADX and DFM data.

EIBOR on WED 23SEP2009

Emirates Interbank Borrowing Rates fixed on WED 23 SEP 2009

VALUE SAT 26 SEP 2009

1 MONTH
1.75625
2 MONTH
1.91250
3 MONTH
2.08125
6 MONTH
2.35625
1 YEAR
2.63750

ADX on THU 24SEP2009

CLOSE	3,118.70
Change	-25.67
Change (%)	-0.82
Trades	2,280
Volume	123,999,462
Value (AED)	280,224,385
High	3,144.37
Low	3,112.68
OPEN	3,144.38

DFM on WED 23SEP2009

CLOSE	2,204.27
Change	76.65
Change (%)	3.60
Trades	15,241
Volume	927,194,182
Value (AED)	1,590,383,309
High	2,206.70
Low	2,127.62
OPEN	2,127.62

ADX on WED 23SEP2009

CLOSE	3,144.37
Change	44.32
Change (%)	1.43
Trades	4,137
Volume	205,545,522
Value (AED)	463,488,831
High	3,148.79
Low	3,100.05
OPEN	3,100.05

EIBOR on SAT 19SEP2009

Emirates Interbank Borrowing Rates fixed on SAT 19 SEP 2009

VALUE on THU 24 SEP 2009

1 MONTH
1.75625
2 MONTH
1.91250
3 MONTH
2.08125
6 MONTH
2.35625
1 YEAR
2.63750

UAE stock market holiday

Stock markets ADX and DFM closed SUN 20 SEP 2009 and MON 21 SEP 2009 and TUE 22 SEP 2009

for the occasion of Eid Al Fitr.