ARTC Big Picture 2010

Lots of news recently about AABAR “taking over” Arabtec. As ever, real details are hard to come by and as people over-analyse the “deal” speculation on the future stock price is ultimately based on flawed assumptions and premises. The main and important assumption that the large stakeholders are operating based on some kind of brilliant long-term strategy is the one that is most false. After all this is the UAE stock market we are talking about.

Let’s look instead at a few numbers that can aid decisions related to intermediate and long-term holding of ARTC shares.

2.52 is critical this January on a monthly closing basis. What this means is should ARTC close below this level at the end of the month, then expect it to revisit 2.26

Above 2.88 this month the stock is strong. That’s where a short-term monthly MA lies at the moment. An immediate concern is closing above 2.68 (a weekly short-term MA)

I expect 2.43 to provide some support on a closing basis for this stock as a major FIBO of the December-January range thus far, but if we see it trade before 2.81 then I expect lower levels, the aforementioned 2.26 coming first.

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