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GULFNAV 2012

Gulf Navigation Holding (GULFNAV), discussed elsewhere on this blog several times in the past…

2012 so far:

0.18 — ALL TIME LOW hit on 17JAN2012;

0.185 — ALL TIME LOW (closing basis) hit same day

0.429 — YEAR HIGH on 29FEB2012

0.417 — YEAR HIGH (closing basis) on 04MAR2012

GULFNAV rallied 138% (125% on a daily CLOSING basis) from its historic ALL TIME LOW in very short time (about a month).

In retrospect, that vicious rally looks like a typical bear market rally, as the stock has proven weak throughout the year.

Why is it weak?

The stock has gone beyond the lower of the widely used FIBO levels (68.2%) in retracing the rally earlier in the year.

0.18 – 0.185 is the obvious level to watch now.

Hope lies ahead, on daily closes above 0.25, and especially a WEEKLY CLOSE above 0.26

ADX and DFM number of trades on THU 13SEP2012

Number of transactions today:

ADX 924

DFM 1,460

ADX and DFM stocks oversold now

The market has already overshot dangerous support levels mentioned in recent blog posts, as evidenced by the performance of select stocks.

It is not advisable to buy anything in such oversold conditions until some confirmation is visible on the charts of a possible extended short term or intermediate trend change.

As stocks languish below short term moving averages on the daily charts, this would be a dangerous market to buy into.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on as of today’s close:

ARMX

holding above 1.49, mentioned recently as a strong FIBO line.

Is this a good omen for Dubai stocks?

ARTC

2.26 did trade first according to the scenario described here recently.

And mentioned here.

Stay away from this stock and avoid buying in a falling market until some sign comes up that the trend may be changing. Expect bounces, but they are to relieve downward legs, that’s all, and suck people in.

EMAAR

Bad scenario. 2.20-32 should decide the fate of the stock this year.

Easy as that.

UPP

Recently, and before the Credit Suisse analysts’ report came out on this company, Union Properties, this blog said that UPP is dead.

Now people are talking about 3 fils a share (that’s 0.03)

Another way of saying “almost dead” (see end of linked post).

ALDAR

Still below 4.56 mentioned earlier on this blog. The more time the stocks spends below there, the more bearish it gets.

UNB is below 3.00 and that signals weakness.

A look at strength of some UAE stocks

ALDAR

6.53 on 15OCT2009 the highest WEEKLY close,

the highest seen in at least the past 15 months.

The stock closed two weeks above 6.19

a major 2008-9 CRASH FIBO 38.2% WEEKLY CLOSING

Watch 4.56 (also a WC CRASH FIBO) on a weekly closing basis to determine general direction of the stock.

EMAAR

16OCT2009 the stock touched 5.01 intraday

but has not been able to close once above the 2008-9 WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% around 4.97

2008-9 range recap

15.50 06JAN2008 close

1.77 03FEB2009 close

DIC

closed a few times above 1.40, the first WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% but failed to break out above 1.52

ARTC

Failed to reach 4.24, WC CRASH FIBO 38.2%, now struggling again with 2.90-1

UNB

Struggled to stay above 4.06, the WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% for more than a month, must now try so stay above 3.00 site of the lower related FIBO

ETISALAT

Blocked by the 50% WC CRASH FIBO at 12.58 but did well to get there

ARMX
touched 1.94, the WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

must try to hold 1.49, the 38.2% lower level

AABAR

broke 2.60 WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% and stayed above it for a good quarter last year.

FGB

almost touched 19.88 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

in a similar situation as ARMX

NBAD

touched 14.40 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8 on a few weeks, in a similar situation as ARMX and FGB

ADCB

closed just one week above 2.52

a WC MAJOR FIBO of 2007-10 range

STRONG stocks: ARMX , FGB, NBAD

MEDIUM STRENGTH stocks: ETISALAT

WEAK stocks:  AABAR, ALDAR, ARTC, UNB,

VERY WEAK stocks: ADCB, DIC, EMAAR

Special Mention

UPP, almost dead


GULFNAV 2010

Gulf Navigation, GULFNAV, is a stock people think is very undervalued. That belief stems mainly from the fact that the stock’s price is far away from the IPO price of 1 dirham. As it languishes below ONE DIRHAM a share, GULFNAV has been fighting to close above 0.57 on a weekly basis.

A weekly close above 0.70 may negate the relentless downtrend since mid October.

This is a stock with bearish momentum that could be cancelled by any showing above 0.64

We may yet see 0.35 or 0.30 when the company stock price may look attractive enough for it to begin possibly buying back shares.

The company declined 11 per cent in the last 12 months in Dubai trading, compared with an 8.4 per cent drop for Frontline Limited, the world‘s largest operator of super tankers. Gulf Navigation, which held an initial share sale in 2006, may buy back as much as 10 per cent of its stock, Wistoft said.

UNB 2009-10

The 2009 price range of Union National Bank’s stock suggests 2.52 is critical to the uptrend this stock has been in since January last year. The stock’s price bounced strongly off that 2009 major FIBO level (weekly close) on December 10th.

Closing above 3.74 is constructive. Make no mistake, however, as momentum is bearish. It will probably get cancelled at multiple closes above 3.50, and especially the weekly FIBO of recent range at 3.60 where the stock was blocked in December.


ARTC & EMAAR week Jan10

For the week of Jan 10th, ARTC and EMAAR respectively have fallen 10.4% and 12.2%

The only good news today for both stocks was that they did not register fresh lows.

Above 2.85 ARTC  and 4.05 EMAAR next week the stocks may cancel the immediate downtrend but expect lower lows indicated in previous posts.