ARTC & EMAAR updates

Let’s see from a price perspective what’s been going on with ARTC and EMAAR recently.

ARTC has recorded lower lows and lower highs for the fourth consecutive day, also its third consecutive down day. Although an intraday low of 2.36 was hit, the stock managed to close at 2.43, mentioned two days ago. So now we expect 2.26 to trade before 2.81. and that’s not too far away from where we stand.

Mid-term and long-term buyers may want to wait before buying into Arabtec, and get some confirmation that the immediate downtrend is over.

EMAAR

Also closed today at a level mentioned here yesterday, 3.55. Will it end its fall? Maybe, if the stock price forms a daily swing low tomorrow, i.e. manages to trade above today’s high at 3.70

The stock is in an immediate downtrend and a close this week below 3.55 would suggest the lower levels may be reached, mentioned yesterday.

Unless both stocks close at limit up tomorrow, their short-term outlook is quite bearish after moving convincingly below short-term Moving Averages.

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EMAAR shortterm bearish

December-January range suggests the fall from 4.26 may end around 3.55

3.17 – 3.27 is a stronger layer of support from which the price gapped up to euphoric levels in mid December.

3.69-70 offers major FIBO support for now.

Moving Averages picture suggests the stock must close above 3.80 this week to keep bullish and try to do the same at the end of the month. Otherwise expect the price to fall further.

A bad scenario may see the stock visit 2.97, a major FIBO of range from early 2009.

2.20-32 is CRITICAL to this stock and the overall market but that’s about 40% away from current levels.

ARTC Big Picture 2010

Lots of news recently about AABAR “taking over” Arabtec. As ever, real details are hard to come by and as people over-analyse the “deal” speculation on the future stock price is ultimately based on flawed assumptions and premises. The main and important assumption that the large stakeholders are operating based on some kind of brilliant long-term strategy is the one that is most false. After all this is the UAE stock market we are talking about.

Let’s look instead at a few numbers that can aid decisions related to intermediate and long-term holding of ARTC shares.

2.52 is critical this January on a monthly closing basis. What this means is should ARTC close below this level at the end of the month, then expect it to revisit 2.26

Above 2.88 this month the stock is strong. That’s where a short-term monthly MA lies at the moment. An immediate concern is closing above 2.68 (a weekly short-term MA)

I expect 2.43 to provide some support on a closing basis for this stock as a major FIBO of the December-January range thus far, but if we see it trade before 2.81 then I expect lower levels, the aforementioned 2.26 coming first.

End of ADX DFM EIBOR postings

This blog will no longer post EIBORs  and ADX and DFM data.

EIBOR on WED 23SEP2009

Emirates Interbank Borrowing Rates fixed on WED 23 SEP 2009

VALUE SAT 26 SEP 2009

1 MONTH
1.75625
2 MONTH
1.91250
3 MONTH
2.08125
6 MONTH
2.35625
1 YEAR
2.63750

ADX on THU 24SEP2009

CLOSE 3,118.70

Change -25.67

Change (%) -0.82

Trades 2,280

Volume 123,999,462

Value (AED) 280,224,385

High 3,144.37

Low 3,112.68

OPEN 3,144.38

DFM on WED 23SEP2009

CLOSE 2,204.27

Change 76.65

Change (%) 3.60

Trades 15,241

Volume 927,194,182

Value (AED) 1,590,383,309

High 2,206.70

Low 2,127.62

OPEN 2,127.62