Tag Archives: aldar

ADX and DFM stocks oversold now

The market has already overshot dangerous support levels mentioned in recent blog posts, as evidenced by the performance of select stocks.

It is not advisable to buy anything in such oversold conditions until some confirmation is visible on the charts of a possible extended short term or intermediate trend change.

As stocks languish below short term moving averages on the daily charts, this would be a dangerous market to buy into.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on as of today’s close:

ARMX

holding above 1.49, mentioned recently as a strong FIBO line.

Is this a good omen for Dubai stocks?

ARTC

2.26 did trade first according to the scenario described here recently.

And mentioned here.

Stay away from this stock and avoid buying in a falling market until some sign comes up that the trend may be changing. Expect bounces, but they are to relieve downward legs, that’s all, and suck people in.

EMAAR

Bad scenario. 2.20-32 should decide the fate of the stock this year.

Easy as that.

UPP

Recently, and before the Credit Suisse analysts’ report came out on this company, Union Properties, this blog said that UPP is dead.

Now people are talking about 3 fils a share (that’s 0.03)

Another way of saying “almost dead” (see end of linked post).

ALDAR

Still below 4.56 mentioned earlier on this blog. The more time the stocks spends below there, the more bearish it gets.

UNB is below 3.00 and that signals weakness.

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A look at strength of some UAE stocks

ALDAR

6.53 on 15OCT2009 the highest WEEKLY close,

the highest seen in at least the past 15 months.

The stock closed two weeks above 6.19

a major 2008-9 CRASH FIBO 38.2% WEEKLY CLOSING

Watch 4.56 (also a WC CRASH FIBO) on a weekly closing basis to determine general direction of the stock.

EMAAR

16OCT2009 the stock touched 5.01 intraday

but has not been able to close once above the 2008-9 WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% around 4.97

2008-9 range recap

15.50 06JAN2008 close

1.77 03FEB2009 close

DIC

closed a few times above 1.40, the first WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% but failed to break out above 1.52

ARTC

Failed to reach 4.24, WC CRASH FIBO 38.2%, now struggling again with 2.90-1

UNB

Struggled to stay above 4.06, the WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% for more than a month, must now try so stay above 3.00 site of the lower related FIBO

ETISALAT

Blocked by the 50% WC CRASH FIBO at 12.58 but did well to get there

ARMX
touched 1.94, the WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

must try to hold 1.49, the 38.2% lower level

AABAR

broke 2.60 WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% and stayed above it for a good quarter last year.

FGB

almost touched 19.88 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

in a similar situation as ARMX

NBAD

touched 14.40 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8 on a few weeks, in a similar situation as ARMX and FGB

ADCB

closed just one week above 2.52

a WC MAJOR FIBO of 2007-10 range

STRONG stocks: ARMX , FGB, NBAD

MEDIUM STRENGTH stocks: ETISALAT

WEAK stocks:  AABAR, ALDAR, ARTC, UNB,

VERY WEAK stocks: ADCB, DIC, EMAAR

Special Mention

UPP, almost dead


ALDAR upside targets

ALDAR printed a 52 WK low on 12NOV2008 (4.00), a level last seen in MAR2007.

If the new 52 WK low holds then upside targets in case a real bear market rally materializes are

7.00 – 7.18

7.69 FIBO LEVEL

8.83 – 8.95 FIBO LEVEL 

9.11 – 10.00 can be reached 

Extended trade below the recent support of 4.00, the all-time low of 3.42 on X-MAS DAY 2006 beckons and negates the levels mentioned above.

Al Dar Properties bear

Al Dar Properties had been struggling lately.

Now its bull run is definitely dead.

On Sunday 14SEP2008 the stock easily cut through a major Fibonacci support level @ 7.33

This stock will probably trade in the 6 handle within the next year, as ADX is experiencing a bear market that has only just started.

ALDAR struggling

AL DAR PROPERTIES

The stock probably must clear 11.20 convincingly and close above it a few times to survive.

Today was the FOURTH session in a row that AL DAR has closed BELOW the 200-day EMA.

The last time that happened was APRIL 2007.

Looking bearish.

When the imminent bounce fails–

DOWNSIDE TARGETS–

9.45 – 9.55 immediate support

9.06 minor support

8.54 – 8.59 next major FIBO support

8.18 previous resistance

7.35 major FIBO and some congestion

If the stock U-turns

UPSIDE TARGET

13.65 YEAR HIGH

A Few Good UAE Stocks (that WERE)

TOO FAST TOO SOON

the major names from Abu Dhabi and Dubai that have now CORRECTED brutally

ARTC — Arabtec Holding

2.10 to 19.90 (recorded low on 22MAY2006 to high on 27JUL2008)

GAINED 847.62% in just over 26 months, roughly equivalent to OVER 391% per annum

The 2007 low was 3.70 on 03APR2007

———————————————————————–

ALDAR — Al Dar Properties

3.42 to 13.65 (recorded low on 25DEC2006 to high on 16JUN2008)

GAINED 299.12% in about 17.5 months, roughly equivalent to 205% per annum

The 2007 low was 3.63 on 15JAN2007. The 2006 low was 3.42 on 25DEC2006.

———————————————————————-

GULFNAV — Gulf Navigation Holding

0.91 to 1.93 (recorded low on 02APR2007 to high on 02JUN2008)

GAINED 112.09% in 14 months, roughly equivalent to 96% per annum

The 2007 low was 0.91 on 02APR2007

———————————————————————-

SOROUH — Sorouh Real Estate

1.87 to 11.05 (recorded low on 16JAN2007 to high on 05MAR2008)

GAINED 490.91% in just over 13.5 months, roughly equivalent to 436% per annum

The 2007 low was 1.87 on 16JAN2007

——————————————————————–

TAMWEEL

2.60 to 8.72 (recorded low on 03APR2007 to high on 04JUN2008)

GAINED 235.38% in 14 months, roughly equivalent to 202% per annum

The 2007 low was 2.60 on 03APR2007