Tag Archives: arabtec

ADX and DFM stocks oversold now

The market has already overshot dangerous support levels mentioned in recent blog posts, as evidenced by the performance of select stocks.

It is not advisable to buy anything in such oversold conditions until some confirmation is visible on the charts of a possible extended short term or intermediate trend change.

As stocks languish below short term moving averages on the daily charts, this would be a dangerous market to buy into.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on as of today’s close:

ARMX

holding above 1.49, mentioned recently as a strong FIBO line.

Is this a good omen for Dubai stocks?

ARTC

2.26 did trade first according to the scenario described here recently.

And mentioned here.

Stay away from this stock and avoid buying in a falling market until some sign comes up that the trend may be changing. Expect bounces, but they are to relieve downward legs, that’s all, and suck people in.

EMAAR

Bad scenario. 2.20-32 should decide the fate of the stock this year.

Easy as that.

UPP

Recently, and before the Credit Suisse analysts’ report came out on this company, Union Properties, this blog said that UPP is dead.

Now people are talking about 3 fils a share (that’s 0.03)

Another way of saying “almost dead” (see end of linked post).

ALDAR

Still below 4.56 mentioned earlier on this blog. The more time the stocks spends below there, the more bearish it gets.

UNB is below 3.00 and that signals weakness.

ARTC & EMAAR week Jan10

For the week of Jan 10th, ARTC and EMAAR respectively have fallen 10.4% and 12.2%

The only good news today for both stocks was that they did not register fresh lows.

Above 2.85 ARTC  and 4.05 EMAAR next week the stocks may cancel the immediate downtrend but expect lower lows indicated in previous posts.

ARTC & EMAAR updates

Let’s see from a price perspective what’s been going on with ARTC and EMAAR recently.

ARTC has recorded lower lows and lower highs for the fourth consecutive day, also its third consecutive down day. Although an intraday low of 2.36 was hit, the stock managed to close at 2.43, mentioned two days ago. So now we expect 2.26 to trade before 2.81. and that’s not too far away from where we stand.

Mid-term and long-term buyers may want to wait before buying into Arabtec, and get some confirmation that the immediate downtrend is over.

EMAAR

Also closed today at a level mentioned here yesterday, 3.55. Will it end its fall? Maybe, if the stock price forms a daily swing low tomorrow, i.e. manages to trade above today’s high at 3.70

The stock is in an immediate downtrend and a close this week below 3.55 would suggest the lower levels may be reached, mentioned yesterday.

Unless both stocks close at limit up tomorrow, their short-term outlook is quite bearish after moving convincingly below short-term Moving Averages.

ARTC Big Picture 2010

Lots of news recently about AABAR “taking over” Arabtec. As ever, real details are hard to come by and as people over-analyse the “deal” speculation on the future stock price is ultimately based on flawed assumptions and premises. The main and important assumption that the large stakeholders are operating based on some kind of brilliant long-term strategy is the one that is most false. After all this is the UAE stock market we are talking about.

Let’s look instead at a few numbers that can aid decisions related to intermediate and long-term holding of ARTC shares.

2.52 is critical this January on a monthly closing basis. What this means is should ARTC close below this level at the end of the month, then expect it to revisit 2.26

Above 2.88 this month the stock is strong. That’s where a short-term monthly MA lies at the moment. An immediate concern is closing above 2.68 (a weekly short-term MA)

I expect 2.43 to provide some support on a closing basis for this stock as a major FIBO of the December-January range thus far, but if we see it trade before 2.81 then I expect lower levels, the aforementioned 2.26 coming first.

A Few Good UAE Stocks (that WERE)

TOO FAST TOO SOON

the major names from Abu Dhabi and Dubai that have now CORRECTED brutally

ARTC — Arabtec Holding

2.10 to 19.90 (recorded low on 22MAY2006 to high on 27JUL2008)

GAINED 847.62% in just over 26 months, roughly equivalent to OVER 391% per annum

The 2007 low was 3.70 on 03APR2007

———————————————————————–

ALDAR — Al Dar Properties

3.42 to 13.65 (recorded low on 25DEC2006 to high on 16JUN2008)

GAINED 299.12% in about 17.5 months, roughly equivalent to 205% per annum

The 2007 low was 3.63 on 15JAN2007. The 2006 low was 3.42 on 25DEC2006.

———————————————————————-

GULFNAV — Gulf Navigation Holding

0.91 to 1.93 (recorded low on 02APR2007 to high on 02JUN2008)

GAINED 112.09% in 14 months, roughly equivalent to 96% per annum

The 2007 low was 0.91 on 02APR2007

———————————————————————-

SOROUH — Sorouh Real Estate

1.87 to 11.05 (recorded low on 16JAN2007 to high on 05MAR2008)

GAINED 490.91% in just over 13.5 months, roughly equivalent to 436% per annum

The 2007 low was 1.87 on 16JAN2007

——————————————————————–

TAMWEEL

2.60 to 8.72 (recorded low on 03APR2007 to high on 04JUN2008)

GAINED 235.38% in 14 months, roughly equivalent to 202% per annum

The 2007 low was 2.60 on 03APR2007

AMLAK, ARMX, ARTC, GULFNAV, TABREED, TAMWEEL

After today’s dire Dubai general market performance, the following attraction points seem more realistic for the following stocks:

AMLAK — headed DOWN towards 3.18 in the next few months

ARABTECH — The stock has DIED. It’s headed DOWN towards 13.42, where it would be 32.5% off its 2008 high. Below, AED 11.00 and 9.30 are very possible (Good long-term BUY levels). Any buy long-term speculation on this stock above 13.42 is CRAZY.

ARAMEX — Watch 2.19 it’s critical support here! Headed DOWN towards 1.68 if it closes below 2.19 a few times. Today closed @ 2.20, while low was 2.17 so the stock’s still supported.

GULF NAVIGATION — Watch 1.54 it’s critical support here! Headed DOWN towards 1.42 and 1.30, even 1.12 – 1.17 for a GREAT BUY LEVEL if we see a few closes below support. Today closed @ 1.58 with a low of 1.56 STILL SAFE.

TABREED — Watch 2.08 it’s critical support here! Closed barely above @ 2.07 today with a low of 2.06 so this stock is still alive. Should support break we wait for 1.63 to BUY.

TAMWEEL — 6.66 , a MAJOR FIBO support level, has FAILED today (CLOSE 6.50, LOW 6.41) as expected.

4.75 is our long-term BUY level.