Tag Archives: aramex

ADX and DFM stocks oversold now

The market has already overshot dangerous support levels mentioned in recent blog posts, as evidenced by the performance of select stocks.

It is not advisable to buy anything in such oversold conditions until some confirmation is visible on the charts of a possible extended short term or intermediate trend change.

As stocks languish below short term moving averages on the daily charts, this would be a dangerous market to buy into.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on as of today’s close:


holding above 1.49, mentioned recently as a strong FIBO line.

Is this a good omen for Dubai stocks?


2.26 did trade first according to the scenario described here recently.

And mentioned here.

Stay away from this stock and avoid buying in a falling market until some sign comes up that the trend may be changing. Expect bounces, but they are to relieve downward legs, that’s all, and suck people in.


Bad scenario. 2.20-32 should decide the fate of the stock this year.

Easy as that.


Recently, and before the Credit Suisse analysts’ report came out on this company, Union Properties, this blog said that UPP is dead.

Now people are talking about 3 fils a share (that’s 0.03)

Another way of saying “almost dead” (see end of linked post).


Still below 4.56 mentioned earlier on this blog. The more time the stocks spends below there, the more bearish it gets.

UNB is below 3.00 and that signals weakness.


A look at strength of some UAE stocks


6.53 on 15OCT2009 the highest WEEKLY close,

the highest seen in at least the past 15 months.

The stock closed two weeks above 6.19

a major 2008-9 CRASH FIBO 38.2% WEEKLY CLOSING

Watch 4.56 (also a WC CRASH FIBO) on a weekly closing basis to determine general direction of the stock.


16OCT2009 the stock touched 5.01 intraday

but has not been able to close once above the 2008-9 WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% around 4.97

2008-9 range recap

15.50 06JAN2008 close

1.77 03FEB2009 close


closed a few times above 1.40, the first WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% but failed to break out above 1.52


Failed to reach 4.24, WC CRASH FIBO 38.2%, now struggling again with 2.90-1


Struggled to stay above 4.06, the WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% for more than a month, must now try so stay above 3.00 site of the lower related FIBO


Blocked by the 50% WC CRASH FIBO at 12.58 but did well to get there

touched 1.94, the WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

must try to hold 1.49, the 38.2% lower level


broke 2.60 WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% and stayed above it for a good quarter last year.


almost touched 19.88 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

in a similar situation as ARMX


touched 14.40 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8 on a few weeks, in a similar situation as ARMX and FGB


closed just one week above 2.52

a WC MAJOR FIBO of 2007-10 range





Special Mention

UPP, almost dead

ARAMEX bear intact

Today the market tanked

1.88 failed and that was major recent support for this stock.

Next stop 1.68

Things are happening way too fast these days.

ARAMEX update early October

Upside target still valid in case a rally materializes, AND in case 1.96 holds under current bearish pressure.

(ARMX has not been very liquid lately, btw.)

The closes have been successively bearish since the last ARMX post, so if 1.96 fails then expect major major support around 1.88 to be tested and probably penetrated.

ARAMEX bounce target

ARMX seems to have exited oversold conditions yesterday. It closed 11.50% higher and one fils (0.01) above the 75 day EMA, after blasting through the 10 day EMA.

The stock has been supported well recently at 1.89 close to a 76.4% major FIBO retracement level.

Next stop 2.37

where the 50% FIBO of the 2007 ascent resides…


After today’s dire Dubai general market performance, the following attraction points seem more realistic for the following stocks:

AMLAK — headed DOWN towards 3.18 in the next few months

ARABTECH — The stock has DIED. It’s headed DOWN towards 13.42, where it would be 32.5% off its 2008 high. Below, AED 11.00 and 9.30 are very possible (Good long-term BUY levels). Any buy long-term speculation on this stock above 13.42 is CRAZY.

ARAMEX — Watch 2.19 it’s critical support here! Headed DOWN towards 1.68 if it closes below 2.19 a few times. Today closed @ 2.20, while low was 2.17 so the stock’s still supported.

GULF NAVIGATION — Watch 1.54 it’s critical support here! Headed DOWN towards 1.42 and 1.30, even 1.12 – 1.17 for a GREAT BUY LEVEL if we see a few closes below support. Today closed @ 1.58 with a low of 1.56 STILL SAFE.

TABREED — Watch 2.08 it’s critical support here! Closed barely above @ 2.07 today with a low of 2.06 so this stock is still alive. Should support break we wait for 1.63 to BUY.

TAMWEEL — 6.66 , a MAJOR FIBO support level, has FAILED today (CLOSE 6.50, LOW 6.41) as expected.

4.75 is our long-term BUY level.