Tag Archives: union properties

ADX and DFM stocks oversold now

The market has already overshot dangerous support levels mentioned in recent blog posts, as evidenced by the performance of select stocks.

It is not advisable to buy anything in such oversold conditions until some confirmation is visible on the charts of a possible extended short term or intermediate trend change.

As stocks languish below short term moving averages on the daily charts, this would be a dangerous market to buy into.

Let’s have a look at what’s going on as of today’s close:

ARMX

holding above 1.49, mentioned recently as a strong FIBO line.

Is this a good omen for Dubai stocks?

ARTC

2.26 did trade first according to the scenario described here recently.

And mentioned here.

Stay away from this stock and avoid buying in a falling market until some sign comes up that the trend may be changing. Expect bounces, but they are to relieve downward legs, that’s all, and suck people in.

EMAAR

Bad scenario. 2.20-32 should decide the fate of the stock this year.

Easy as that.

UPP

Recently, and before the Credit Suisse analysts’ report came out on this company, Union Properties, this blog said that UPP is dead.

Now people are talking about 3 fils a share (that’s 0.03)

Another way of saying “almost dead” (see end of linked post).

ALDAR

Still below 4.56 mentioned earlier on this blog. The more time the stocks spends below there, the more bearish it gets.

UNB is below 3.00 and that signals weakness.

A look at strength of some UAE stocks

ALDAR

6.53 on 15OCT2009 the highest WEEKLY close,

the highest seen in at least the past 15 months.

The stock closed two weeks above 6.19

a major 2008-9 CRASH FIBO 38.2% WEEKLY CLOSING

Watch 4.56 (also a WC CRASH FIBO) on a weekly closing basis to determine general direction of the stock.

EMAAR

16OCT2009 the stock touched 5.01 intraday

but has not been able to close once above the 2008-9 WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% around 4.97

2008-9 range recap

15.50 06JAN2008 close

1.77 03FEB2009 close

DIC

closed a few times above 1.40, the first WC CRASH FIBO 23.6% but failed to break out above 1.52

ARTC

Failed to reach 4.24, WC CRASH FIBO 38.2%, now struggling again with 2.90-1

UNB

Struggled to stay above 4.06, the WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% for more than a month, must now try so stay above 3.00 site of the lower related FIBO

ETISALAT

Blocked by the 50% WC CRASH FIBO at 12.58 but did well to get there

ARMX
touched 1.94, the WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

must try to hold 1.49, the 38.2% lower level

AABAR

broke 2.60 WC CRASH FIBO 38.2% and stayed above it for a good quarter last year.

FGB

almost touched 19.88 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8%

in a similar situation as ARMX

NBAD

touched 14.40 WC CRASH FIBO 61.8 on a few weeks, in a similar situation as ARMX and FGB

ADCB

closed just one week above 2.52

a WC MAJOR FIBO of 2007-10 range

STRONG stocks: ARMX , FGB, NBAD

MEDIUM STRENGTH stocks: ETISALAT

WEAK stocks:  AABAR, ALDAR, ARTC, UNB,

VERY WEAK stocks: ADCB, DIC, EMAAR

Special Mention

UPP, almost dead


DFM — where the bounce can happen

Today EMAAR plumbed new depths [ 9.11 ].

UPP and EMAAR have been weighing on the DFMGI.

UPP is now below 4.00 and heads towards the FIBO 50% retrace of 3.82-3.85. EMAAR has lost its strong multi-year support within the 9 handle and is probably headed towards 8.00

The Dubai Financial Market General Index has recorded A NEW LOW (closing and intraday) for 2008.

RSI 14 still looks very oversold, which doesn’t bode well for the market in the near-term.

Also, a wedge or triangle was developing and the index broke out of its lower side.

EMAAR @ around 8 could also mean the DFM GI hovering around 4,650 , a major FIBO retrace of the bull run that started almost a year ago and died early this year.

I don’t see EMAAR trading below 8 by October, although it’s possible, and would probably happen after a decent bounce in price. Having said that, I think we’ve seen decent corrections in a lot of the major stocks in the past month and a half, so I can’t see the index going below 4,650 in the short-term.

FORECAST

DFM GI stabilizes around 4,650

Look for a BOUNCE of at least 15%

EMAAR around 8.00

time-frame : by October.

UPP — Bear control

Today [ CLOSE 4.16 LOW 4.11 HIGH 4.38 OPEN 4.38 ]

The house that UPP built has crumbled, and fast, the past few sessions.

The BEAR has this stock in its grips now. SELL rallies and bounces in this stock.

Next MAJOR stop 3.85

UPP — Surviving? [ UPDATE ]

4.53 obviously has failed to support Union Properties PJSC today. Its bull run has probably ENDED.

[ CLOSE 4.32 day’s LOW 4.32 ]

Day’s high price was 4.64, suggesting the stock completely failed to pierce resistance [ 4.62 to 4.75 ] mentioned in our earlier blog post on UPP.

The stock is now at immediate major FIBO support 4.29 – 4.30

Beyond that is 3.85 !

UPP — Surviving

UPP — Union Properties PJSC

LOW 20061.96 on 04DEC2006

LOW 20071.98 on 14JAN2007

GAINED 291.84% in a little less than 20 months; that’s about 175% per annum.

[1.96 on 04DEC2006 to 5.72 on 24JUL2008]

Unlike other UAE stocks that greatly outperformed the markets and are now either dead or struggling, UPP is still holding its own, and can maintain its bull run.

It has managed to keep its head above the 200-day EMA, SO FAR.

Major FIBO levels offer support @ around 4.29 and 3.85

The ALL-TIME HIGH of 6.09 on 13JUN2005 is a viable medium-term target.

Watch 4.53 (current 200-day EMA) for clues.

Immediate resistance lies between 4.62-4.75.